The Perpetual Optimist
The RBI has surveyed household consumer confidence 73 times since September 2012. The pattern is striking: people almost always feel the economy is doing poorly right now, but almost always believe it will improve in a year. The gap between current pessimism and future optimism has persisted for over a decade.
73
Survey Rounds
79%
Current Negative
90%
Future Positive
38 pts
Avg. Gap
Negative about today 79% of the time
In 58 out of 73 survey rounds, the net current perception was negative - meaning more people felt the economy had worsened than improved. The current perception was only positive during brief periods, notably around 2014-2015.
But optimistic about tomorrow 90% of the time
Future expectations were positive in 66 out of 73 rounds. Only during COVID (mid-2020) did future expectations briefly turn negative. By September 2020, even as current sentiment hit -70.6, future expectations had already bounced back to +15.3.
COVID was the only time both lines went negative
In May-September 2020, both current perception (-70.6) and future expectations (-11.7) turned negative simultaneously. This had never happened before and hasn't happened since. The recovery in optimism was remarkably fast.
The gap averages 38 points and never closes
The average gap between future expectations and current perception is 38 points. The gap ranged from 11.5 to 85.9 points but never went to zero. Indians are structurally optimistic about the future regardless of present conditions.